The low pressure system responsible for the potential severe weather we will be seeing for the next few days is currently over the state of Nebraska and is slowly creeping towards the Great Lakes.
Out of this system is a cold front that is draped south through Missouri, Arkansas and Texas all the way down to Mexico. This front will move slowly as well, reaching the Carolinas by Wednesday evening.
During that time, we will remain in the "Warm Sector" of this system as moisture continues to funnel into the south from the Gulf of Mexico. High Dew points, significant heating throughout the day and vertical wind shear (the changing of wind direction and speed) will set up an unstable atmosphere.
With these ingredients in place, any thunderstorms that were to develop will have the potential of becoming strong to severe. The threats from these storms will include Hail, Damaging Winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado.
Monday afternoon will bring the first threat of storms, likely lasting into the evening through early Tuesday morning. The rain & thunderstorms will likely continue off and on for Tuesday as well and last until mid-week.
We will be watching to see if these storms turn severe for the duration of this event, again as the ingredients are conducive for significant storm development. The Storm Prediction Center has northeast Georgia, western North Carolina and the Upstate under a slight risk of severe weather for the next three days.
Aside from severe weather, torrential downpours will likely cause flooding concerns for the second half of the work week. We can expect to see anywhere between three and four inches of rain with local areas possibly recording as much as six inches with thunderstorm accumulation!
It is important to stay "weather aware" for the next few days as this event takes place. We will be sure to provide updates on air, Facebook, Twitter and the web as things advance and change. Stay dry and stay safe!